How the draw is balanced

Team rankings

Every team is seeded 1–48 by strength (based on FIFA ranking and seeding), then split into four pots of twelve. The draw uses these to keep everyone's squad roughly even.

How strength shapes the draw

48 teams go to 17 people, so 14 people get 3 teams and 3 people get 2.

The draw deals teams strongest-first and always hands the next team to whoever's squad is currently the weakestoverall. That balances total squad strength across everyone — and because the 3 people who only get 2 teams stay "light" longer, they naturally pick up stronger sides as compensation.

The result: across hundreds of test draws, the gap between the strongest and weakest squad stays tiny. It's the same for everyone, and you can verify it.

Strength 1–12

Pot 1 · the heavyweights

1ArgentinaGrp J

2SpainGrp H

3FranceGrp I

4EnglandGrp L

5BrazilGrp C

6PortugalGrp K

7NetherlandsGrp F

8BelgiumGrp G

9GermanyGrp E

10CroatiaGrp L

11MoroccoGrp C

12ColombiaGrp K

Strength 13–24

Pot 2 · strong contenders

13UruguayGrp H

14United StatesGrp D

15MexicoGrp A

16SwitzerlandGrp B

17JapanGrp F

18SenegalGrp I

19IranGrp G

20South KoreaGrp A

21EcuadorGrp E

22AustriaGrp J

23AustraliaGrp D

24CanadaGrp B

Strength 25–36

Pot 3 · the dark horses

25NorwayGrp I

26TurkeyGrp D

27PanamaGrp L

28EgyptGrp G

29AlgeriaGrp J

30ScotlandGrp C

31ParaguayGrp D

32TunisiaGrp F

33Ivory CoastGrp E

34Saudi ArabiaGrp H

35QatarGrp B

36SwedenGrp F

Strength 37–48

Pot 4 · the underdogs

37Czech RepublicGrp A

38UzbekistanGrp K

39South AfricaGrp A

40JordanGrp J

41Cape VerdeGrp H

42GhanaGrp L

43Bosnia and HerzegovinaGrp B

44CuraçaoGrp E

45IraqGrp I

46HaitiGrp C

47Democratic Republic of the CongoGrp K

48New ZealandGrp G

Rankings are a seeding aid for a fair draw — not a prediction. Plenty of pot-4 teams have ruined a favourite's day.